resolution watchlist derived

{
  "input": {
    "type": "http",
    "method": "GET",
    "queryParams": {
      "top": 25
    }
  },
  "output": {
    "type": "json",
    "example": {
      "asOf": "2026-09-01T02:31:34.907Z",
      "caveats": [
        "SHOWCASE, NOT THE PAID RESPONSE: what you see is one ranked row of the watchlist. markets is cut to 1 of the 8 rows this response carried. Nothing is masked or invented: every value is a dated measurement, kept so you can read the shape, the units and the field semantics. The schema published beside it is complete; a paid call returns the complete set.",
        "EXAMPLE ONLY: a paid response captured from api.polym.uk on 2026-09-01 with top=8, then frozen. A live response carries its own asOf and current values. The row count is bounded by the 402 challenge header budget, not by the route: top accepts 1 through 40.",
        "Structural BASE RATE for the category and criterion. Not a prediction that THIS market will be disputed or reversed. A fact, not an accusation.",
        "tier uses the RANK-stable signal (category elevated by consensus across two samples, plus a title with no checkable threshold, read from the TITLE and not from the resolution rules), not the absolute dispute rate, which varies about 16-fold between samples.",
        "LIVE markets only, and liveness must have been MEASURED (marketClosed === false). A market whose Gamma context was not fetched is absent rather than assumed open. Drawn from the set decomposed by window volume; this is not the whole Polymarket universe.",
        "flipProne is omitted when the category flip sample is small and therefore directional. Category is a title heuristic."
      ],
      "markets": [
        {
          "tier": "elevated",
          "flags": {
            "flipProne": false,
            "categoryElevated": true,
            "titleLooksUncheckable": true
          },
          "title": "US ceasefire against Iran continues through September 15?",
          "category": "Geopolitics",
          "conditionId": "0x9b94d7e2e7250d156b02435f4d59634d357dc789d842eaee15c35c1158d5bca4",
          "flipRatePct": null,
          "marketClosed": false,
          "categoryElevated": true,
          "disputeFlagCount": 2,
          "apparentVolumeUsd": 46599.79,
          "titleLooksUncheckable": true,
          "categoryDisputeRatePctHighVolume": 35.2
        }
      ],
      "howToRead": "Ranks LIVE markets by STRUCTURAL resolution risk. tier counts how many DISPUTE-axis signals are present (category elevated by consensus, plus a title with no checkable threshold): elevated=2, watch=1, baseline=0. flipProne is a separate axis: if disputed, the outcome tends to REVERSE (category rate at or above the overall rate). Both axes are conditional, and flip alone never raises the tier.",
      "tierCounts": {
        "watch": 2,
        "elevated": 6
      },
      "windowHours": 71.94,
      "flipReferencePct": 14.6,
      "liveMarketsRanked": 8,
      "flipReferenceStatus": "measured",
      "flipReferenceWithheldReason": null
    }
  }
}