{"api":"v1","generated_at":"2026-09-16T01:49:26.442Z","licence":{"name":"CC BY 4.0","url":"https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/","attribution":"TOLL, with a link to the page cited"},"page":"https://tollindex.com/e/api-polym-uk-resolution-watchlist-44472a","pinned_page":"https://tollindex.com/e/api-polym-uk-resolution-watchlist-44472a/at/2026-09-15T21-20Z","pinned":false,"method":"https://tollindex.com/ledger/method","snapshot_at":"2026-09-15T21:20:12.737Z","snapshot_stamp":"2026-09-15T21-20Z","endpoint":{"slug":"api-polym-uk-resolution-watchlist-44472a","canonical_url":"https://api.polym.uk/resolution-watchlist","resource":"https://api.polym.uk/resolution-watchlist","http_method":"GET","type":"http","x402_version":2,"registries":["cdp"],"primary_registry":"cdp","curated_by_coinbase":false,"description":"Live Polymarket watchlist ranked by structural UMA resolution base-rate signals, with flip risk kept as a separate conditional axis. BEFORE YOU PAY: free substitute https://dash.polym.uk/markets.json and https://dash.polym.uk/uma-base-rates.json. THIS ADDS: The live subset ranked by structural dispute signals, computed for you. The inputs are in the free files; the ranking and the tiering are what this adds.","service_name":"Polymarket Intelligence API","declared_category":null,"declared_tags":["polymarket","prediction-markets","uma-resolution","watchlist","base"],"route_template":null,"registry_updated":"2026-09-07T10:17:41.388Z"},"derived":{"note":"fields no registry supplies; TOLL derives them and marks them derived on the page","title":"resolution watchlist","category":"market-data","first_observed_by_toll":"2026-09-10T19:08:24.178Z","last_observed_by_toll":"2026-09-15T21:20:12.737Z","observation_began":"2026-09-10"},"presence":{"listed_now":true,"first_absent_at":null,"delisting_confirmed_at":null,"events":[{"registry":"cdp","at":"2026-09-10T19:08:24.178Z","event":"listed"}]},"accepts":[{"registry":"cdp","ordinal":0,"network":"eip155:8453","asset":"0x833589fcd6edb6e08f4c7c32d4f71b54bda02913","asset_name":"USD Coin","symbol":"USDC","decimals":6,"amount_display":"0.05 USDC","amount_units":0.05,"decimals_known":true,"pay_to":"0x7b13107779CfDA1bEba3289d0Fbe27310436f3E3","scheme":"exact"}],"counters":{"observed_at":"2026-09-15T21:20:12.737Z","calls_30d":4,"unique_payers_30d":1,"last_called_at":"2026-09-07T10:17:40.631Z"},"validation":{"latest":{"observed_at":"2026-09-15T04:35:32.733Z","state":"pass","failed_checks":[],"endpoint_http_status":402,"run_id":"daily-2026-09-15"},"uptime":[{"days":7,"observed":5,"passed":5,"ratio":1},{"days":30,"observed":5,"passed":5,"ratio":1},{"days":90,"observed":5,"passed":5,"ratio":1}],"history_90d":[{"observed_at":"2026-09-15T04:35:32.733Z","state":"pass","failed_checks":[],"run_id":"daily-2026-09-15","state_changed":false},{"observed_at":"2026-09-14T04:31:37.721Z","state":"pass","failed_checks":[],"run_id":"daily-2026-09-14","state_changed":false},{"observed_at":"2026-09-13T04:30:05.965Z","state":"pass","failed_checks":[],"run_id":"daily-2026-09-13","state_changed":false},{"observed_at":"2026-09-12T06:45:56.222Z","state":"pass","failed_checks":[],"run_id":"daily-2026-09-12","state_changed":false},{"observed_at":"2026-09-11T10:18:35.887Z","state":"pass","failed_checks":[],"run_id":"daily-2026-09-11","state_changed":true}]},"seller":{"wallet":"0x7b13107779CfDA1bEba3289d0Fbe27310436f3E3","page":"https://tollindex.com/seller/0x7b13107779CfDA1bEba3289d0Fbe27310436f3E3","endpoints":7,"hosts":2},"reports":0,"registry_record":{"cdp":[{"tags":["polymarket","prediction-markets","uma-resolution","watchlist","base"],"type":"http","accepts":[{"asset":"0x833589fCD6eDb6E08f4c7C32D4f71b54bdA02913","extra":{"name":"USD Coin","iconUrl":"https://polym.uk/favicon.svg","version":"2"},"payTo":"0x7b13107779CfDA1bEba3289d0Fbe27310436f3E3","amount":"50000","scheme":"exact","network":"eip155:8453","maxTimeoutSeconds":300}],"quality":{"lastCalledAt":"2026-09-07T10:17:40.631Z","l30DaysTotalCalls":4,"l30DaysUniquePayers":1},"resource":"https://api.polym.uk/resolution-watchlist","extensions":{"bazaar":{"info":{"input":{"type":"http","method":"GET","queryParams":{"top":25}},"output":{"type":"json","example":{"asOf":"2026-09-01T02:31:34.907Z","caveats":["SHOWCASE, NOT THE PAID RESPONSE: what you see is one ranked row of the watchlist. markets is cut to 1 of the 8 rows this response carried. Nothing is masked or invented: every value is a dated measurement, kept so you can read the shape, the units and the field semantics. The schema published beside it is complete; a paid call returns the complete set.","EXAMPLE ONLY: a paid response captured from api.polym.uk on 2026-09-01 with top=8, then frozen. A live response carries its own asOf and current values. The row count is bounded by the 402 challenge header budget, not by the route: top accepts 1 through 40.","Structural BASE RATE for the category and criterion. Not a prediction that THIS market will be disputed or reversed. A fact, not an accusation.","tier uses the RANK-stable signal (category elevated by consensus across two samples, plus a title with no checkable threshold, read from the TITLE and not from the resolution rules), not the absolute dispute rate, which varies about 16-fold between samples.","LIVE markets only, and liveness must have been MEASURED (marketClosed === false). A market whose Gamma context was not fetched is absent rather than assumed open. Drawn from the set decomposed by window volume; this is not the whole Polymarket universe.","flipProne is omitted when the category flip sample is small and therefore directional. Category is a title heuristic."],"markets":[{"tier":"elevated","flags":{"flipProne":false,"categoryElevated":true,"titleLooksUncheckable":true},"title":"US ceasefire against Iran continues through September 15?","category":"Geopolitics","conditionId":"0x9b94d7e2e7250d156b02435f4d59634d357dc789d842eaee15c35c1158d5bca4","flipRatePct":null,"marketClosed":false,"categoryElevated":true,"disputeFlagCount":2,"apparentVolumeUsd":46599.79,"titleLooksUncheckable":true,"categoryDisputeRatePctHighVolume":35.2}],"howToRead":"Ranks LIVE markets by STRUCTURAL resolution risk. tier counts how many DISPUTE-axis signals are present (category elevated by consensus, plus a title with no checkable threshold): elevated=2, watch=1, baseline=0. flipProne is a separate axis: if disputed, the outcome tends to REVERSE (category rate at or above the overall rate). Both axes are conditional, and flip alone never raises the tier.","tierCounts":{"watch":2,"elevated":6},"windowHours":71.94,"flipReferencePct":14.6,"liveMarketsRanked":8,"flipReferenceStatus":"measured","flipReferenceWithheldReason":null}}},"schema":{"type":"object","$schema":"https://json-schema.org/draft/2020-12/schema","required":["input"],"properties":{"input":{"type":"object","required":["type","method"],"properties":{"type":{"type":"string","const":"http"},"method":{"enum":["GET"],"type":"string"},"queryParams":{"type":"object","properties":{"top":{"type":"integer","default":25,"maximum":40,"minimum":1}},"additionalProperties":false}},"additionalProperties":false},"output":{"type":"object","required":["type"],"properties":{"type":{"type":"string"},"example":{"type":"object","required":["asOf","windowHours","liveMarketsRanked","tierCounts","flipReferencePct","markets","howToRead","caveats"],"properties":{"asOf":{"type":"string","format":"date-time"},"caveats":{"type":"array","items":{"type":"string"}},"markets":{"type":"array","items":{"type":"object","required":["conditionId","title","tier","disputeFlagCount","flags","category","titleLooksUncheckable","categoryElevated","categoryDisputeRatePctHighVolume","flipRatePct","apparentVolumeUsd","marketClosed"],"properties":{"tier":{"enum":["elevated","watch","baseline"],"type":"string"},"flags":{"type":"object","required":["categoryElevated","titleLooksUncheckable","flipProne"],"properties":{"flipProne":{"type":"boolean","description":"Separate conditional axis: if disputed, this category reverses at or above the overall rate. Never raises the tier."},"categoryElevated":{"type":"boolean","description":"Category flagged elevated by consensus across both dispute samples. Dispute axis; counts toward tier."},"titleLooksUncheckable":{"type":"boolean","description":"The title states no checkable threshold. Dispute axis; counts toward tier. Read from the title only."}},"additionalProperties":false},"title":{"type":"string"},"category":{"type":"string"},"conditionId":{"type":"string","pattern":"^0x[0-9a-fA-F]{64}$","description":"Polymarket condition ID."},"flipRatePct":{"type":["number","null"],"maximum":100,"minimum":0},"marketClosed":{"type":["boolean","null"]},"categoryElevated":{"type":"boolean"},"disputeFlagCount":{"type":"integer","minimum":0},"apparentVolumeUsd":{"type":"number","minimum":0},"titleLooksUncheckable":{"type":"boolean"},"categoryDisputeRatePctHighVolume":{"type":"number","maximum":100,"minimum":0}},"additionalProperties":false}},"howToRead":{"type":"string"},"tierCounts":{"type":"object","additionalProperties":{"type":"integer","minimum":0}},"windowHours":{"type":"number","minimum":0},"flipReferencePct":{"type":["number","null"],"maximum":100,"minimum":0,"description":"Overall flip reference rate, in percent. `null` means WITHHELD, never a default: see flipReferenceStatus and flipReferenceWithheldReason. When it is null, flipProne was not evaluated on any row."},"liveMarketsRanked":{"type":"integer","minimum":0},"flipReferenceStatus":{"enum":["measured","withheld"],"type":"string"},"flipReferenceWithheldReason":{"type":["string","null"]}},"additionalProperties":false}}}}}}},"description":"Live Polymarket watchlist ranked by structural UMA resolution base-rate signals, with flip risk kept as a separate conditional axis. BEFORE YOU PAY: free substitute https://dash.polym.uk/markets.json and https://dash.polym.uk/uma-base-rates.json. THIS ADDS: The live subset ranked by structural dispute signals, computed for you. The inputs are in the free files; the ranking and the tiering are what this adds.","lastUpdated":"2026-09-07T10:17:41.388Z","serviceName":"Polymarket Intelligence API","x402Version":2}]}}