econsignal sanctions impact derived

{
  "input": {
    "type": "http",
    "method": "GET",
    "queryParams": {
      "lang": "en",
      "regime": "all",
      "country": "Russia"
    }
  },
  "output": {
    "type": "json",
    "example": {
      "query_summary": {
        "iso2": "IR",
        "country": "Iran",
        "regimes_active": [
          "OFAC",
          "EU",
          "UN"
        ]
      },
      "economic_impact": {
        "fx_reserves_usd_bn": 4,
        "shadow_fleet_vessels": 150,
        "primary_evasion_route": "China — absorbing ~1.2M bpd at discount (20-30% below Brent)",
        "oil_exports_current_mbpd": 1.5,
        "oil_exports_pre_sanctions_mbpd": 2.5,
        "inflation_attributable_to_sanctions_pct": 30,
        "gdp_at_max_sanctions_vs_counterfactual_loss_pct": 25
      },
      "sanctions_profile": {
        "primary_regimes": [
          "US OFAC — comprehensive since 1979; JCPOA reimposition 2018",
          "EU — oil, financial, arms since 2012",
          "UN — arms embargo, nuclear-related"
        ],
        "key_designations": [
          "OFAC SDN list 3,200+ Iranian entities",
          "EU asset freeze 2,100+ entities"
        ],
        "sectors_targeted": [
          "Oil and gas",
          "Banking and SWIFT",
          "Arms/military",
          "IRGC entities",
          "Petrochemicals"
        ]
      },
      "satellite_evidence": {
        "nightlights_trend": "Tehran stable; Khuzestan oil province showing recovery in light activity post-2023",
        "shipping_ais_dark": "Large portion of Iranian tanker fleet going AIS-dark in Gulf — estimated 80+ vessels with transponders off",
        "arak_heavy_water_reactor": "Satellite imagery confirms continued construction activity despite nuclear sanctions"
      },
      "evasion_effectiveness": {
        "rating": "Highly effective — estimated 60-70% of sanctions impact offset by evasion",
        "primary_enablers": [
          "China",
          "UAE (re-export hub)",
          "Iraq",
          "Turkey (historical)"
        ]
      },
      "compliance_implications": "Iranian oil reaching global markets via third-country blending and mislabeling. Due diligence requires cargo tracking, port call history, vessel ownership chains."
    }
  }
}