econsignal nightlights derived

{
  "input": {
    "type": "http",
    "method": "GET",
    "queryParams": {
      "iso2": "CN",
      "lang": "en",
      "period": "5y",
      "country": "China"
    }
  },
  "output": {
    "type": "json",
    "example": {
      "official_gdp": {
        "source": "National Bureau of Statistics China",
        "reported_growth_2022_pct": 3,
        "reported_growth_2023_pct": 5.2
      },
      "query_summary": {
        "iso2": "CN",
        "country": "China",
        "signal_basis": "VIIRS NOAA-20 nighttime lights composite"
      },
      "satellite_signal": {
        "low_activity_regions": [
          "Northeast rust belt — Liaoning, Jilin, Heilongjiang showing flat/declining signal"
        ],
        "high_activity_regions": [
          "Yangtze River Delta",
          "Pearl River Delta",
          "Chengdu-Chongqing"
        ],
        "nightlights_growth_trend": "Consistent with 2-3% real growth in manufacturing belt; lower than official 5.2% in 2023",
        "electricity_vs_gdp_divergence": "Electricity +6.9% while GDP +5.2% — electricity typically tracks GDP closely; gap suggests mix shift toward services (lower power intensity)",
        "electricity_consumption_growth_pct": 6.9
      },
      "divergence_analysis": {
        "verdict": "Moderate divergence — GDP plausibly in 3.5-5.5% range; official figure within bounds but upper end appears optimistic",
        "confidence": "Medium",
        "methodology_note": "Nightlights correlate strongly with industrial/manufacturing GDP; services sector (growing share of Chinese economy) has lower light signature",
        "historical_context": "China nightlights diverged significantly from official GDP in 2015-2016 (provincial GDP sums exceeded national total by 10%)"
      },
      "investment_implications": "CNY positioning and EM equity exposure should discount to 4-4.5% real growth range rather than headline 5.2%. Manufacturing-facing sectors most at risk of disappointment."
    }
  }
}