econsignal divergence derived

{
  "input": {
    "type": "http",
    "method": "GET",
    "queryParams": {
      "lang": "en",
      "country": "China"
    }
  },
  "output": {
    "type": "json",
    "example": {
      "query_summary": {
        "iso2": "RU",
        "iso3": "RUS",
        "country": "Russia",
        "analysis_date": "2026-06-07"
      },
      "official_claims": {
        "source": "Rosstat (Russian Federal Statistics Service)",
        "inflation_pct": 7.4,
        "unemployment_pct": 2.9,
        "gdp_growth_2023_pct": 3.6,
        "gdp_growth_2024_pct": 3.9
      },
      "alternative_signals": {
        "shipping_ais": "Baltic and Black Sea exports declined 40% by volume post-sanctions; Asian routing up 180%",
        "google_mobility": "Retail/recreation +8% above baseline; workplace mobility elevated (full employment in defense sector)",
        "nightlights_trend": "European Russia stable; Urals/Siberia industrial corridor showing elevated activity (defense production)",
        "electricity_consumption": "+3.2% YoY — broadly consistent with claimed GDP growth",
        "satellite_urban_activity": "Moscow construction activity elevated; regional cities mixed"
      },
      "divergence_assessment": {
        "verdict": "Partial divergence — GDP growth plausible but composition distorted; defense sector masks civilian economy weakness",
        "confidence": "Medium-Low",
        "credibility_max": 100,
        "key_distortions": [
          "Defense spending 7.1% of GDP in 2024 — government demand masking private sector contraction",
          "Labor market tightness is real but reflects conscription losses, not economic health",
          "Inflation likely 12-18% vs official 7.4% — price controls and basket manipulation documented"
        ],
        "credibility_score": 45
      },
      "investor_implications": "Russia GDP figures are technically accurate but deeply misleading as an investment signal. The civilian economy ex-defense has contracted. Sanctions burden is accumulating, not receding."
    }
  }
}