econsignal credit stress derived

{
  "input": {
    "type": "http",
    "method": "GET",
    "queryParams": {
      "lang": "en",
      "country": "Egypt"
    }
  },
  "output": {
    "type": "json",
    "example": {
      "stress_score": {
        "max": 100,
        "note": "Manageable near-term with IMF/GCC support; medium-term solvency requires structural reform",
        "score": 62,
        "rating": "High Stress"
      },
      "query_summary": {
        "iso2": "EG",
        "iso3": "EGY",
        "country": "Egypt"
      },
      "credit_ratings": {
        "sp": "B-",
        "fitch": "B-",
        "moodys": "Caa1",
        "outlook": "Stable (post-devaluation adjustment)"
      },
      "reform_progress": "EGP float and subsidy cuts proceeding on schedule; FDI uptick in Q1 2025; tourism revenues recovering",
      "sovereign_profile": {
        "gov_debt_pct_gdp": 95.8,
        "fx_reserves_usd_bn": 46,
        "imf_program_active": true,
        "imf_program_detail": "EFF $8B (2024-2026) — conditional on EGP float, subsidy reform",
        "external_debt_usd_bn": 165,
        "debt_service_ratio_pct_exports": 34
      },
      "stress_indicators": {
        "fx_regime": "Managed float post-March 2024 — EGP devalued 40%",
        "cds_5yr_bps": 620,
        "banking_sector_npl_pct": 3.8,
        "eurobond_yield_spread_bps": 680,
        "dollarization_deposits_pct": 22
      },
      "vulnerability_assessment": {
        "rollover_risk": "Elevated — $18B external debt maturities in 2025-2026",
        "solvency_risk": "High — debt/GDP ratio requires sustained primary surplus to stabilize",
        "contagion_risk": "Low — Egypt too systemically important for GCC to allow default",
        "liquidity_risk": "Moderate — IMF program + Gulf GCC deposits provide near-term buffer"
      }
    }
  }
}